Return to Pre-Pandemic Growth Trends
U.S. home prices rose 0.6% from the previous month in February, mirroring the average monthly increase of 0.6% observed during the eight years before the Covid-19 pandemic, according to a new Redfin analysis. This is a significant shift from the dramatic price surges seen during the pandemic years, signaling a return to more typical growth patterns. Despite the more moderate price growth, housing costs remain elevated, and both buyers and sellers are facing challenges in a market that is still adjusting to the fallout of the pandemic era.
Moderate Growth Amid High Mortgage Rates
According to Daryl Fairweather, Chief Economist at Redfin, home prices had traditionally increased by about 0.5% each month, translating to annual gains of roughly 5% or 6% before the pandemic. The recent data suggests that the market is stabilizing and returning to this pre-pandemic trend, despite higher mortgage rates. This is confirmed by a similar analysis from Moody’s Analytics, which also indicates that home price appreciation has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
A New Market Dynamic
However, experts agree that the housing market today is vastly different from what it was before the pandemic. Although price growth has moderated, the average home remains unaffordable for many prospective buyers, and while inventory has improved slightly, it still falls short of meeting demand. Fairweather notes that both buyers and sellers are dissatisfied with the current state of the market. Sellers are unhappy with the lower offers they are receiving, while buyers are frustrated by the combined effects of rising home prices and mortgage rates.
Low Transaction Levels Despite Price Stability
A critical factor affecting the housing market is the relatively low number of transactions. Even though home prices have stabilized, the high mortgage rates—peaking at nearly 8% last year and still hovering above 6%—have led to a drop in sales activity. Transactions are at “recessionary lows,” according to Matthew Walsh of Moody’s Analytics, despite a brief uptick in February.
Limited Housing Supply Remains a Key Challenge
Additionally, the supply of homes remains constrained. While new listings increased by 5% in the four-week period ending March 17, this increase is modest compared to the overall need for more inventory. Fairweather points out that the market is still far from returning to the conditions seen before the pandemic. A seasonal uptick in listings, as owners typically put their homes on the market in the spring, is expected, but these factors alone are unlikely to address the long-term supply shortage.
Loosening of the “Rate Lock-In Effect”
The so-called “rate lock-in effect,” where homeowners with low mortgage rates have been reluctant to sell and refinance due to higher current rates, is also loosening, leading to a slight increase in inventory. As time passes, this effect will likely fade, especially if the Federal Reserve cuts rates later this year, making it more feasible for homeowners to list their properties.
New Construction Offers Some Relief
While the housing market remains tight, new-home sales are offering some relief. Builders are benefitting from the limited supply of existing homes and are offering incentives like mortgage rate buydowns and price reductions to attract buyers. However, the growth in new construction is not enough to fully address the nation’s housing shortage. The market will likely continue to face an acute supply gap despite efforts to increase new builds.
Conclusion: A Market in Transition
In conclusion, while the housing market is returning to its pre-pandemic growth pattern, the situation remains far from ideal for both buyers and sellers. Rising home prices, high mortgage rates, and limited inventory continue to present significant challenges. The market will likely remain in a state of flux as economic conditions evolve, with slight improvements expected as mortgage rates stabilize.