July brings a predictable seasonal upswing in the U.S. housing market, marking a shift toward pre-pandemic normalcy characterized by stronger buyer activity, rising inventory, and stabilizing prices. Here’s a comprehensive look at the latest trends and what they mean for buyers, sellers, and real estate professionals.
The national housing supply has climbed significantly, with roughly 4.0 to 4.4 months of inventory available—up from pandemic-era lows and approaching pre‑COVID norms. Realtor.com reports a 27% year-over-year increase in active listings leading into July. Although new listings remain elevated, the pace of inventory growth appears to be plateauing as the summer market reaches an equilibrium. As of April, listings across the country totaled approximately $700 billion, highlighting a remarkable surge in supply after years of scarcity.
Current average 30-year fixed mortgage rates remain in the high-6% range, recently dipping to about 6.77%, the lowest in three months. The median nationwide home price has modestly increased to around $422,800, marking a 1–2% rise year-over-year—far slower than the rapid gains seen in 2021–22. Despite inventory gains, analysts from Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan project continued moderate price growth of around 3–4% through 2025, with potential for stabilization or slight declines if supply continues to outpace demand.
With more listings and fewer bidding wars, buyers now enjoy more choices and strategic leverage. However, elevated mortgage rates and still-high prices continue to place affordability pressure on first-time and entry-level homebuyers. Despite these challenges, refinancing activity has picked up, spurred by recent rate dips. Mortgage applications for refinancing surged 56% year-over-year for the week ending July 4.
Sellers face a different reality. One-third of listings have undergone price reductions, signaling that pricing discipline is now essential. Sellers must align expectations with market conditions and be prepared for longer time-on-market periods. Additionally, partnering with transaction coordinators has become increasingly popular to manage the complexities of the modern closing process and reduce delays.
Real estate professionals are adjusting strategies to stay competitive. Hosting themed open houses with refreshments helps create memorable experiences. Enhancing listings through virtual staging and interactive walkthroughs appeals to today’s tech‑savvy buyers. Diligent comparative market analysis is more important than ever to avoid overpricing. Agents are also leveraging transaction coordinators to streamline paperwork and expedite closings.
The market’s dynamics vary by region. Some Sun Belt metros such as Miami, Dallas, Nashville, and Orlando may experience slight price declines—potentially over 5% in softer conditions. In contrast, cities like Boston, Phoenix, Charlotte, and Kansas City are poised for modest rebounds, according to the National Association of Realtors. These fluctuations highlight the importance of understanding local market trends when advising clients or making purchasing decisions.
Beyond local dynamics, broader economic forces continue to shape housing trends. Over 80% of current homeowners have mortgages locked in below 6%, discouraging them from listing their properties and contributing to low turnover rates. Builders have responded to affordability challenges by offering incentives such as rate buy-downs and covering HOA fees. However, Moody’s warns that without meaningful mortgage rate declines, elevated financing costs could weigh down home sales and broader economic momentum.
The July 2025 housing landscape is markedly different from the frantic, low-inventory environment of the pandemic era. Rising supply, stable yet elevated mortgage rates, and moderate price growth are ushering in a more balanced, buyer-accessible market. For agents and sellers, staying aligned with market expectations and offering added value is key. Buyers benefit from increased options and greater negotiating power, though affordability remains a key challenge until rates fall more substantially.
Looking ahead, if mortgage rates ease further, buyer activity could strengthen and absorb inventory gains. Otherwise, a cautious yet stable housing market is expected to persist through the remainder of 2025.