The National Association of Realtors (NAR) has released its June 2025 Real Estate and Economic Outlook, revealing a steady and measured pace for the U.S. housing market heading into the third quarter of the year. Unveiled at NAR’s annual forum in Washington, D.C., the report reflects a cautiously optimistic tone, with economists and real estate professionals predicting a year of controlled growth, increased inventory, and stable mortgage rates.
NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun shared projections that suggest existing-home and new-home sales will experience moderate increases, with price appreciation limited to a range of 2% to 4% annually. This marks a significant slowdown from the high double-digit gains seen during the pandemic-era housing boom. Yun attributes this moderation to a mix of rising housing supply, improved buyer choice, and mortgage rates that have largely stabilized between 6.5% and 7%.
One of the key takeaways from the June 3 forum was that realtors across the country are witnessing a more balanced housing environment. April data showed that home price growth slowed to just 2%—the lowest rate of increase since the spring of 2012. While markets in Florida, Texas, and other Sun Belt states are seeing either flat prices or slight declines, other regions continue to exhibit modest but healthy gains. These regional differences underscore the importance of localized market dynamics, as each area adjusts differently to broader economic pressures.
Inventory growth has played a significant role in easing the tight conditions that dominated much of 2023 and early 2024. The number of existing homes listed for sale rose by 11.7% compared to the previous year, providing much-needed relief for buyers. This increase has helped moderate competition, leading to longer listing times and more room for price negotiation. It has also contributed to a more relaxed buying environment, where urgency has given way to deliberation.
Realtors at the forum noted a shift in buyer and seller behavior. Many buyers, no longer feeling the pressure to rush, are taking time to compare options and make considered decisions. Sellers, for their part, are adjusting to the reality of a slower market, with many willing to negotiate on price or offer concessions to close deals. These changing attitudes are contributing to what NAR describes as a “sustainable” housing dynamic—one characterized by steadier growth and reduced volatility.
Yun emphasized that as long as mortgage rates remain within the 6.5% to 7% band, the market is unlikely to experience dramatic fluctuations. Although rates remain higher than the sub-4% levels seen in 2020 and 2021, the predictability of current borrowing costs is giving both buyers and sellers a clearer framework for decision-making. If inflation continues to cool and the Federal Reserve holds off on further rate hikes, rates could trend slightly lower in the second half of the year, offering further support to the housing market.
Economists also noted that the broader economic environment is generally supportive of continued real estate activity. Wages are growing at a modest pace—just enough to keep up with inflation—while unemployment remains low. These factors, combined with stable home prices and increased inventory, have helped boost affordability slightly, though entry-level buyers still face challenges in high-cost metro areas.
Looking ahead, the housing market is expected to remain on a moderate growth trajectory. New-home construction, while not booming, is gradually expanding, helping to bridge the persistent gap between supply and demand. Builders are focusing on smaller, more affordable homes, which align better with the budgets of today’s buyers. This shift could further support inventory growth and affordability in the coming months.
In conclusion, NAR’s June 2025 outlook presents a picture of a U.S. housing market that is stabilizing after years of intense volatility. With mortgage rates plateauing, home prices rising slowly, and inventory expanding, the market appears to be settling into a more sustainable rhythm. For real estate professionals, buyers, and sellers alike, this represents a welcome shift from the extremes of the recent past—and a signal that the market may be entering a more balanced and resilient phase.